Historically, variable-rate mortgages have out-performed fixed roughly 80% of the time. That's the classic argument for variable. But past performance is not a rate forecast, and in 2026 the calculus is unusually tight.
How to think about it
Fixed rates are priced off government bond yields plus a lender spread. Variable rates move with the Bank of Canada's overnight rate. The spread between the two right now is small — often under 30 basis points — which historically favours fixed for peace-of-mind buyers.
The right answer is the one that lets you sleep. If a 100-basis-point rate hike would stress your household budget, take fixed. If your household can absorb rate volatility, variable has a slight expected-value edge in a falling-rate environment.