Should I choose fixed or variable at mortgage renewal?
Fixed if payment certainty matters more than beating the market. Variable if you can absorb 2%–3% of rate volatility and expect the Bank of Canada to cut faster than the market has priced in. Historically variable wins ~70% of the time, but the losing 30% (2022–2023) has been very painful.
As of late 2026, the fixed-variable spread is narrower than typical — variable rates carry only a modest discount to 5-year fixed. In that environment, fixed usually wins on risk-adjusted basis unless you have strong conviction that the BoC will cut further and faster than the yield curve implies.
A middle path many brokers recommend: a 3-year fixed. It locks payment for the meaningful budgeting horizon while letting you re-shop rates two years sooner than a 5-year fixed.
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Jay Klair, Mortgage Agent Level 2 (M09000869) — Real Mortgage Associates, FSRA #10464, part of the DLGC Group of Companies · 5675 Whittle Rd, Suite 100, Mississauga, ON L4Z 3P8